Market direction? - 美股吧

Vickmore · 07-25-2007, 12:09 AM

It was very surprise to see a big down day for today. Now I am very worrying about that the top of the market already here now. Take look the daily chart of RUT and SPX, NSDAQ and DJI, I see RUT is leader of this down-trend and display 3 mountain top pattern, and SPX also show 3 mountain top. NSDAQ and DJI are still > 50 MA and so the up-trend still intact. However, I have not seen RUT leading the market down before. Friends, what’s your opinion?

trader · 07-25-2007, 07:50 AM

Wait and see the market reaction after yesterday's down move.

There's plenty of $$ to be made even after a top. But we have to wait for a market rebound first.

Vickmore · 07-25-2007, 06:51 PM

Trading volume usually is low since managers of mutual fund take vacation. However, this summer is very unusual since the trading volume for SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ are really high so far. The chart pattern of SPY looks like 2003yr summer. If the history repeat we may have strong market after July.

We have a small rebound today and the leader AAPL jumped up after hour because of very good ER. Also, BIDU and QCOM jumped up after hour. so most likely we will have a good day. Be ready for trading tomorrow!

Vickmore · 07-29-2007, 06:37 PM

sharply down week in last week was one of the worst in years. As a trader, I am wondering where the market will go next week? Obviously, the momentum now is very bearish and point to lower level. then where is the potential support? I checked the daily charts of 4 indices and found that NASDQ and SPX long term (7/06yr to now) support level are 2568 and 1460. So, it looks like that we will have a short-term rebound Mon or Tuesday, IMO. However, the mid-term trend direction of 4 indices are going to down until we see a major reversal signal. Comments?

Vickmore · 07-30-2007, 06:29 PM

Market rebound today and set up a short-term uptrend now. IMO, there will be DT oppertunity for long in sectors: XLE, XLF, XLB and SMH. only short-term rebound, I can see now. Comments?

trader · 07-30-2007, 06:53 PM

I agree that there will be daytrading opportunities in strong sectors. Longer term stil very unpredictable. This is a rebound near 200 day MA for some indices.

Vickmore · 07-31-2007, 11:25 PM

It was surprise to observe the rebound being very short life. so be patient to wait for more clear market sign for long if you don't have shorting or put experiences. It is very hard to make money now if you only do longs. IMO, be patient or know when not trading is essential for a trader. We can not make money every week or sometimes for months, basically. I prefer to read some trading books now.

trader · 07-31-2007, 11:34 PM

This short rebound indicates that the amrket has significant problems. The market is not friendly for longs. This is the time to do nothing but hold cash.

Maybe I should prepare for the seminar...

Vickmore · 08-01-2007, 12:26 AM

Yes, I am still waiting for your seminar on swing trading.

Vickmore · 08-01-2007, 11:39 PM

We will have another short term rebound again. But longer term trend is still down and the sell may resume soon. We can do longs for DT, only DT for strong stocks or sectors. Trader posted several strong stocks already. Be patient and be careful in trading right now.

mingbao · 08-03-2007, 02:54 PM

Is this B-Wave? or testing the bottom? Anyway, only DT is safe. Trader's seminar maybe also talk about Day Trading.

Vickmore · 08-04-2007, 12:49 AM

It is still 1st leg down and the 2 days rebound was so short that did not form a short term up-wave. Thus, I can't see the bottom! the bottom may be very deep.

bighead_new · 08-04-2007, 01:12 AM

This correction was expected but two weeks late. Expert says at least 4 week's downtrend is head of us ! ?

Vickmore · 08-04-2007, 03:55 PM

Actually, I don't trust the experts from brokerage or wall street since if they really know how long and how deep this correction or any correction will go they don't tell you. let's see how this correction move forward.

Vickmore · 08-06-2007, 08:28 PM

Today IBD said market in confirmed rally in big picture & that "Stocks powered higher in brisk volume Monday, fueling a follow-through day for the Dow." and "On Friday, the market saw big price declines in heavy volume. That kind of distribution can negatively affect a rally try.

But unlike the other major indexes, the Dow never undercut its near-term lows. Monday's recovery thus signaled a follow-through for the Dow. The market only needs one of the broad indexes to follow through to confirm a rally.

The correction started last month was short, even by recent standards, lasting barely three weeks. The previous correction lasted about four weeks."

So it looks like that the correction is over. What's your view on this correction? trader and other friends.

07-25-2007, 12:09 AM	#1
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	Market direction? It was very surprise to see a big down day for today. Now I am very worrying about that the top of the market already here now. Take look the daily chart of RUT and SPX, NSDAQ and DJI, I see RUT is leader of this down-trend and display 3 mountain top pattern, and SPX also show 3 mountain top. NSDAQ and DJI are still > 50 MA and so the up-trend still intact. However, I have not seen RUT leading the market down before. Friends, what’s your opinion?

07-25-2007, 06:51 PM	#3
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	Trading volume usually is low since managers of mutual fund take vacation. However, this summer is very unusual since the trading volume for SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQQ are really high so far. The chart pattern of SPY looks like 2003yr summer. If the history repeat we may have strong market after July. We have a small rebound today and the leader AAPL jumped up after hour because of very good ER. Also, BIDU and QCOM jumped up after hour. so most likely we will have a good day. Be ready for trading tomorrow! 此帖于 07-25-2007 06:56 PM 被 Vickmore 编辑.

07-29-2007, 06:37 PM	#4
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	sharply down week in last week was one of the worst in years. As a trader, I am wondering where the market will go next week? Obviously, the momentum now is very bearish and point to lower level. then where is the potential support? I checked the daily charts of 4 indices and found that NASDQ and SPX long term (7/06yr to now) support level are 2568 and 1460. So, it looks like that we will have a short-term rebound Mon or Tuesday, IMO. However, the mid-term trend direction of 4 indices are going to down until we see a major reversal signal. Comments? 此帖于 07-29-2007 06:38 PM 被 Vickmore 编辑. 原因: change words

08-04-2007, 12:49 AM	#12
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	It is still 1st leg down and the 2 days rebound was so short that did not form a short term up-wave. Thus, I can't see the bottom! the bottom may be very deep. 此帖于 08-04-2007 01:33 AM 被 Vickmore 编辑.

08-06-2007, 08:28 PM	#15
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	the correction is over? Today IBD said market in confirmed rally in big picture & that "Stocks powered higher in brisk volume Monday, fueling a follow-through day for the Dow." and "On Friday, the market saw big price declines in heavy volume. That kind of distribution can negatively affect a rally try. But unlike the other major indexes, the Dow never undercut its near-term lows. Monday's recovery thus signaled a follow-through for the Dow. The market only needs one of the broad indexes to follow through to confirm a rally. The correction started last month was short, even by recent standards, lasting barely three weeks. The previous correction lasted about four weeks." So it looks like that the correction is over. What's your view on this correction? trader and other friends.

07-25-2007, 07:50 AM	#2
trader 全职炒股注册日期: Jan 2007 帖子: 2,747	Wait and see the market reaction after yesterday's down move. There's plenty of $$ to be made even after a top. But we have to wait for a market rebound first.

07-30-2007, 06:29 PM	#5
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	Market rebound today and set up a short-term uptrend now. IMO, there will be DT oppertunity for long in sectors: XLE, XLF, XLB and SMH. only short-term rebound, I can see now. Comments?

07-30-2007, 06:53 PM	#6
trader 全职炒股注册日期: Jan 2007 帖子: 2,747	I agree that there will be daytrading opportunities in strong sectors. Longer term stil very unpredictable. This is a rebound near 200 day MA for some indices.

07-31-2007, 11:25 PM	#7
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	It was surprise to observe the rebound being very short life. so be patient to wait for more clear market sign for long if you don't have shorting or put experiences. It is very hard to make money now if you only do longs. IMO, be patient or know when not trading is essential for a trader. We can not make money every week or sometimes for months, basically. I prefer to read some trading books now.

07-31-2007, 11:34 PM	#8
trader 全职炒股注册日期: Jan 2007 帖子: 2,747	This short rebound indicates that the amrket has significant problems. The market is not friendly for longs. This is the time to do nothing but hold cash. Maybe I should prepare for the seminar...

08-01-2007, 12:26 AM	#9
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	Yes, I am still waiting for your seminar on swing trading.

08-01-2007, 11:39 PM	#10
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	We will have another short term rebound again. But longer term trend is still down and the sell may resume soon. We can do longs for DT, only DT for strong stocks or sectors. Trader posted several strong stocks already. Be patient and be careful in trading right now.

08-03-2007, 02:54 PM	#11
mingbao 核心会员注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 113	Is this B-Wave? or testing the bottom? Anyway, only DT is safe. Trader's seminar maybe also talk about Day Trading.

08-04-2007, 01:12 AM	#13
bighead_new 核心会员注册日期: Jun 2007 帖子: 26	This correction was expected but two weeks late. Expert says at least 4 week's downtrend is head of us ! ?

08-04-2007, 03:55 PM	#14
Vickmore 版主注册日期: Mar 2007 帖子: 624	Actually, I don't trust the experts from brokerage or wall street since if they really know how long and how deep this correction or any correction will go they don't tell you. let's see how this correction move forward.

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